The Barclays high-yield bond capitulation signal jumped 34 percentage points since the end of March to 91%, its highest level since October 2023, when Treasury yields surged on inflation fears. When the gauge hits 100%, the market is in full capitulation. That has happened five times this century: during the 2008-09 financial crisis; the 2011 European debt crisis; when oil prices plummeted in 2016; the start of the pandemic in 2020; and when interest rates surged in 2022.