Americans in the past two years spent more of their income on food than they have in three decades.

Fed officials’ quarterly economic projections have penciled in an interest-rate outlook suggesting that, once they make their first move, they could cut rates by a quarter percentage point roughly once every quarter.

The U.S.’s S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index—which gauges activity in the country’s manufacturing and services sectors—rose to 55.0 in July from 54.8 in June, marking a 27-month high.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% last month—the first time it has crossed above 4% since 2021. That’s still low by historical measures, but it’s up from 3.4% early last year.

The small-cap index rose 1.7% this past week, extending its 2024 advance to 7.8%, while the S&P 500 dropped 2%.

Last year, private credit assets topped $2.1 trillion globally, most of this in the U.S.

The number of U.S. workers who quit their jobs in one month peaked at 3% in April 2022, prompting many employers to boost salaries, give more time off and offer flexible schedules in an attempt to retain talent. Since then the U.S. rate of quitting has drifted below prepandemic levels to 2.2%, where it has held steady so far this year.

The Sahm rule, a rule of thumb popularized by economist Claudia Sahm, says that if the average of the unemployment rate over three months rises a half-percentage point or more above the lowest the three-month average went over the previous year, the economy is in a recession. Over the past three months, the unemployment rate has averaged 4%—0.4 percentage point above the three-month average low of 3.6% over the past year.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he was pleased with how inflation had resumed a downtrend following a rebound at the start of the year, a sign the central bank might be able to lower interest rates by the end of the summer even though he declined to endorse such a move.

Two-thirds of outstanding U.S. mortgages have a rate below 4%. Were these homeowners to move, they would have to pay close to 7% for a new 30-year mortgage. The gap hasn’t been as wide since at least the late 1980s.