Derivatives markets show investors now expect the Fed’s target rate to sit at 5% at year-end, up from just above 4% last month.

Despite steady job gains, Americans are growing more pessimistic about economic growth, which slowed in the first quarter. Consumer confidence fell in May for the second straight month.

In the first quarter, banks’ real-estate loans, excluding residential single- to four-family homes, yielded 5.4%. That represented a rise of more than 1.7 percentage points over a year earlier. Those residential home-loan yields, by contrast, rose just over 0.6 point from a year earlier, to 3.96%.

The ratio of money banks lent out compared to property value dropped to 51% LTV this spring, a 30-year low in commercial mortgages.

On a year-over-year basis, the home price index rose 0.7% in March, down from a 2.1% annual rate the prior month. The annual increase was the smallest since May 2012.

Office REIT stock prices posted a 48% decline since the start of 2020. Over that same period, the S&P 500 index is up 37%.

Extended stay hotels remain an enduring bright spot for a hospitality industry that was rocked by the pandemic. These properties had an occupancy rate of 74.7% last year, significantly higher than overall hotel occupancy in the U.S., which reached 62.6% in 2022.

Companies in the Russell 3000 have unveiled plans to buy back more than $600 billion in shares this year, in line with last year’s record pace. In all, they announced $1.27 trillion of share repurchases and completed $1.05 trillion in buybacks in 2022, both all-time highs.

Banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for 29.9% of the nearly $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt is maturing by the end of 2025.

The Federal Reserve’s rate-raising campaign has put a notable crimp in financing for companies with smaller payrolls and valuations. The average rate for a loan from the U.S. Small Business Administration, which historically costs less than a bank loan, has reached double-digits, driving many small firms to borrow less.